Economic Analysis
September 2013
Amalgamated’s economy was boosted by higher retail sales, construction and commodity prices. Repairs from hail damage and mid-summer moisture have been the economic drivers over the summer.
Retail sales were up 12% from the same month last year. Year to date retail sales are up 7%. Car sales continue to be solid with new up 5% and used cars up 50%.
Summer travelers and insurance adjusters pushed the Hotel/Motel tax collections up 16% from 2012.
According to the household survey, there are 1,500 more people work- ing in Amalgamated compared to last year. The employers survey show there are 1,400 more workers. Gains in construction (+300), manufacturing (+200), and Utilities (+700) are all beneficial.
80% of building permits are repairs from the hail storm. We are told the construction is about 1/3 of the way completed, so we will see these types of number for the rest of the year.
Residential starts are up 19% even as mortgage rates are up a full percentage point.
There are 8 more drilling rigs in the Panhandle as oil (up 19%) and natural gas (up 27%) are higher.
The corn crop is strong and prices are down 34% from last August’s high of $8. Cotton is up 18% and should provide a big stimulus to the South Plains.
Dairies are seeing stable milk prices, but also stable to mildly declining input costs.
Feedyards are expecting profits of $50 per head this month after losses in the first half of 2013.
Airline boardings plummeted 18% due to higher fares and fewer seats available on Southwest Airlines (our largest carrier).
| September 2013 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Index* |
248.04 |
233.29 |
215.38 |
|
Sales Tax Collections |
$6,340,743 |
$6,002,509 |
$5,661,904 |
|
Sales Tax Collection-YTD |
$52,425,543 |
$46,584,800 |
$48,904,388 |
|
New Vehicle Sales |
1,518 |
1,773 |
1,448 |
|
Used Vehicle Sales |
1,277 |
1,241 |
850 |
|
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) |
20,495 |
22,986 |
21,079 |
|
Airline Boardings |
32,467 |
34,624 |
39,813 |
|
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax |
$658,653 |
$679,885 |
$566,672 |
|
Population - Corporate Amarillo |
191,514 |
191,514 |
191,514 |
|
Employment - CLF |
133,600 |
135,000 |
137,000 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.70% |
5.10% |
5.00% |
|
Total Workers Employed |
127,400 |
128,500 |
130,100 |
|
Average Weekly Wages |
$796.10 |
$796.10 |
$759.37 |
|
Gas |
37,268 |
37,264 |
66,320 |
|
Water Connection |
68,815 |
68,884 |
68,365 |
|
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates |
4.80% |
4.60% |
3.75% |
|
Building Permits Dollar Amount |
$70,009,978 |
$59,013,201 |
$21,978,934 |
|
Residential Starts |
50 |
30 |
42 |
|
Year To Date Total Starts |
331 |
281 |
395 |
|
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle |
80 |
72 |
75 |
|
Oil Price Per Barrel |
$103.68 |
$102.95 |
$87.25 |
|
Natural Gas |
$3.57 |
$3.29 |
$2.82 |
|
Wheat Per Bushel |
$6.85 |
$6.80 |
$8.48 |
|
Fed Cattle Per CWT |
$123.00 |
$120.00 |
$123.00 |
|
Corn Per Bushel |
$5.20 |
$6.10 |
$7.90 |
|
Cotton (Cents Per Pound) |
$83.36 |
$81.62 |
$70.40 |
|
Milk |
$18.00 |
$19.00 |
$18.00 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amalgamated International Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amalgamated, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
